OPPORTUNITIES BEFORE EFFICIENCIES – New Rules https://kk.org/newrules Just another kk.org site Mon, 23 Apr 2012 13:43:42 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=5.9.12 Maximize the opportunity cascade. https://kk.org/newrules/maximize_the_opportunity_casca/ Mon, 23 Apr 2012 13:42:40 +0000 Continue reading ]]> One opportunity triggers another. And then another. That’s a rifle-shot opportunity burst. But if one opportunity triggers ten others and those ten others after, it’s an explosion that cascades wide and fast. Some seized opportunities burst completely laterally, multiplying to the hundreds of thousands in the first generation–and then dry up immediately. Think of the pet rock. Sure, it sold in the millions, but then what? There was no opportunity cascade. The way to determine the likelihood of a cascade is to explore the question: How many other technologies or businesses can be started by others based on this opportunity?

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Scout for upside surprises. https://kk.org/newrules/scout_for_upside_surprises/ Mon, 23 Apr 2012 09:23:58 +0000 Continue reading ]]> The qualities needed to succeed in the network economy can be reduced to this: a facility for charging into the unknown. Disaster lurks everywhere, but so do unexpected bonanzas. But the Great Asymmetry ensures that the upside potential outweighs the downside, even though nine out of ten tries will fail. Upside benefits tend to cluster. When there are two, there will be more. A typical upside surprise is an innovation that satisfies three wants at once, and generates five new ones, too.

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Why can’t a machine do this? https://kk.org/newrules/why_cant_a_machine_do_this/ Mon, 23 Apr 2012 09:17:50 +0000 Continue reading ]]> If there is pressure to increase the productivity of human workers, the serious question to ask is, why can’t a machine do this? The fact that a task is routine enough to be measured suggests that it is routine enough to go to the robots. In my opinion, many of the jobs that are being fought over by unions today are jobs that will be outlawed within several generations as inhumane.

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Our minds will at first be bound by old rules https://kk.org/newrules/our_minds_will_at_first_be_bou/ Mon, 23 Apr 2012 09:15:36 +0000 Continue reading ]]> …of economic growth and productivity. Listening to the technology can loose them. Technology says, rank opportunities before efficiencies. For any individual, organization, or country the key decision is not how to raise productivity by doing the same better, but how to negotiate among the explosion of opportunities, and choose right things to do.

The wonderful news about the network economy is that it plays right into human strengths. Repetition, sequels, copies, and automation all tend toward the free and efficient, while the innovative, original, and imaginative–none of which results in efficiency–soar in value

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“Need” is a loaded word. https://kk.org/newrules/need_is_a_loaded_word/ Mon, 23 Apr 2012 08:53:43 +0000 Continue reading ]]> The key point in economic terms is that each actualization of a desire–that is, each new service or product–forms a platform from which other possible activities can be imagined and desired. Once technology satisfies the opportunity to fly, for instance, flying produces new desires: to eat while flying, to fly by oneself to work each day, to fly faster than sound, to fly to the moon, to watch TV while flying. Once technology satisfies the desire to watch TV while flying, our insatiable imagination hungers to be able to watch a video of our own choosing, and to not see what others watch. That dream, too, can be actualized by technical knowledge. Each actualization of an idea supplies room for more technology, and each new technology supplies room for more ideas. They feed on each other, rounding faster and faster.

This ever-extending loop whereby technology generates demand, and then supplies the technology to meet those demands is the origin of progress. But it is only now being viewed as such. In classical economics–based on the workings of the brick and smokestack–technology was a leftover. To explain economic growth, economists tallied up the effects of the traditional economic ingredients such as labor, capital, and inventory. This aggregate became the equation of growth. Whatever growth was not explained by those was attributed to a residual category: technology. Technology was thus defined as outside the economic engine. It was also assumed to be a fixed quantity–something that didn’t really change itself. Then in 1957 Robert Solow, an economist working at MIT, calculated that technology is responsible for about 80% of growth.

We see now, particularly with the advent of the network economy, that technology is not the residual, but the dynamo. In the new order, technology is the Prime Mover.

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A dry room with running water,… https://kk.org/newrules/a_dry_room_with_running_water/ Mon, 23 Apr 2012 08:39:53 +0000 Continue reading ]]> electric lights, a color TV, and a toilet are considered so elementary and primary today that we outfit jail cells with this minimum technology. Yet three generations ago, this technology would have been officially classified as outright luxurious, if not frivolous. In the government’s eyes 93% of Americans officially classified as living in poverty have a color TV, and 60% have a VCR and a microwave. Poverty is not what it used to be. Technological knowledge constantly ups the ante. Most Americans today would find living without a refrigerator and telephone to be primitive, indeed. These items were luxuries only 60 years ago. At this point an automobile of one’s own is considered a primary survival need of any adult.

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Needs are neither fixed nor absolute. https://kk.org/newrules/needs_are_neither_fixed_nor_ab/ Mon, 23 Apr 2012 04:47:35 +0000 Continue reading ]]> Instead they are fluid and reflexive. The father of virtual reality, Jaron Lanier, claims that his passion for inventing VR systems came from a long-frustrated urge to play “air guitar”–to be able to wave his arms and have music emanate from his motions. Anyone with access to a VR arcade can now have that urge satisfied, but it is a want that most people would have never recognized until they immersed themselves into virtual reality gear. It was certainly not a primary want that Plato would have listed.

At one time a useful distinction was made in economics between “primary” needs such as food and clothing, and all other wants and preferences, which were termed “luxuries.” Advertising is undoubtedly guilty, as critics charge, of creating desires. At first these manufactured desires were for luxuries. But the reach of technology is deep. Sophisticated media technology first creates desires for luxuries; then technology transforms those luxuries into primary necessities.

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Faster than the economy can produce… https://kk.org/newrules/faster_than_the_economy_can_pr/ Tue, 10 Apr 2012 07:48:01 +0000 Continue reading ]]> …what we want, we are exploring in every direction, following every idle curiosity, and inventing more wants to satisfy. Like everything else in a network, our wants are compounding exponentially.

Although at some fundamental level our wants connect to our psyches, and each desire can be traced to some primeval urge, technology creates ever new opportunities for those desires to find outlets and form. Some deep-rooted human desires found expression only when the right technology came along. Think of the ancient urge to fly, for instance.

KLM, the official Dutch airline, sells a million dollars worth of tickets per year to people who fly trips to nowhere. Customers board the plane on whatever international flight KLM has extra seats on, and make an immediate round-trip flight, returning without leaving the airport at the other end. The flight is like a high-tech cruise, where duty-free shopping and simply flying in a 737 at a steep discount is the attraction. Where did this want come from? It was created by technology.

Finance writer Paul Pilzer notes perceptively that “When a merchant sells a consumer a new Sony Walkman for $50, he is in fact creating far more demand than he is satisfying–in this case a continuing and potentially unlimited need for tape cassettes and batteries.” Technology creates our needs faster than it satisfies them.

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It takes 56 hours of wasting time on the web… https://kk.org/newrules/it_takes_56_hours_of_wasting_t/ Thu, 05 Apr 2012 03:54:38 +0000 Continue reading ]]> –clicking aimlessly through dumb web sites, trying stuff, and making tons of mistakes and silly requests–before you master its search process. The web encourages inefficiency. It is all about creating opportunities and ignoring problems. Therefore it has hatched more originality in a few weeks than the efficiency-oriented Dialog system has in its lifetime, that is, if Dialog has ever hatched anything novel at all.

The Web is being run by 20-year-olds because they can afford to waste the 56 hours it takes to become proficient explorers. While 45-year-old boomers can’t take a vacation without thinking how they’ll justify the trip as being productive in some sense, the young can follow hunches and create seemingly mindless novelties on the web without worrying about whether they are being efficient. Out of these inefficient tinkerings will come the future.

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Before the World Wide Web there was Dialog. https://kk.org/newrules/before_the_world_wide_web_ther/ Mon, 26 Mar 2012 03:26:59 +0000 Continue reading ]]> Dialog was pretty futuristic. In the 1970s and ’80s it was the closest thing to an electronic library there was, containing the world’s scientific, scholarly, and journalistic texts. The only problem was its price, $1 per minute. You could spend a lot of money looking things up. At those prices only serious questions were asked. There was no fooling around, no making frivolous queries–like looking up your name. Waste was discouraged. Since searching was sold as a scarcity, there was little way to master the medium, or to create anything novel.

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